□ .P.e.t.e.r. .M.i.l.l.i.k.e.n./.C.r.a.i.g. .W.o.n.g.-.P.a.n./.J.a.m.e.s. .W.a.n.g./.S.r.i.n.i.v.a.s .德.意.志.银.行.股.份.有.限.公.司
ASIA-PAC TELECOMS：FIVE PATHS LEAD UP
时间：2017年09月28日 13:01:04 中财网
The sector is as out-of-favour as we can recall since perhaps 2005, but withsome value investors starting to nibble. I've been reading small cap legend, JoelTillinghast's, book Big Money Thinks Small （it is a good read）。 He makes a veryapt point for telecom investors today, suggesting humans pay for excitementin life and investing, and conversely earn "shadow income" through "patience,boredom, worry, courage, pain, loneliness, being a nerd, and looking like an idiot"- each, especially the last, describes being overweight telecoms recently - and webelieve investors could start to collect this shadow income as some or, all of thefive paths we mention, come to reality.At what point will investors need to care?
The tech sell-off of the last week is, in our view, a wake-up call to investorsthat a broader universe exists beyond momentum stocks. Asia-Pacific ex Japantelcos have lagged the market by 29% over the last three years - with almostall of that occurring in the last 12M, We believe there are five potential avenuesto drive telecom stocks back up: 1） Further tech stock weakness, leading torotation into telecoms, 2） A bond to high-yield-equity switch when inflationbecomes apparent, 3） An awareness that sector profit is trending up ahead, andcapex down, delivering sector FCF CAGR that we estimate at 19% in 2016-'19,4） Growing belief that new services, that IoT, cloud and other services driveprofitability, and 5） 2017's high M&A continues and drives consolidation. Webelieve each of these is a likely factor to drive the sector ahead. Top picks: ChinaMobile, SoftBank, Telstra, HKT Trust, Idea Cellular, CITIC Telecom.
Valuation and risks
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